Among the nations within sub-Saharan Africa, one stands out as a beacon of promise: Kenya. A convergence of economic and political dynamics is positioning the seventh-largest country on the continent in a notably advantageous position.
The trajectory of Africa is marked by rapid growth, with projections indicating that it will encompass a quarter of the world's population by 2050. This surge necessitates the establishment of a direct multinational corporate presence in sub-Saharan Africa. While Asia, particularly Singapore, has become a popular hub due to Hong Kong's integration into communist China, the question arises: Which African locale could emulate this model?
Unfortunately, several leading African nations have encountered significant challenges recently. Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, is grappling with an economic slowdown and is just embarking on essential reforms. Ethiopia, the second-most populous nation, recently emerged from a civil war. Meanwhile, South Africa continues to wrestle with political issues and power shortages. Given these hurdles, these nations are not presently in contention to become a predominant sub-Saharan economic hub, primarily due to expatriates' hesitancy to relocate to these areas.
In contrast, Kenya possesses attributes that can command considerable attention. Boasting a reasonable level of English fluency and a consistently inviting climate, Kenya presents an attractive proposition. Despite adverse shocks to imported food and energy prices, the country achieved a growth rate of approximately 5.5% last year. This momentum has been sustained over the years, with growth rates ranging from 4% to 5% since 2004.
Kenya's geographical advantages also contribute to its appeal. Its extensive coastline along the Indian Ocean aligns with research suggesting that landlocked nations face economic challenges. Coastal countries benefit from enhanced global connectivity, and Kenya enjoys relatively easy access to China and India – pivotal markets and sources of capital. Amidst the prevailing geopolitical landscape, East Africa is garnering more attention from diverse quarters compared to much of West Africa.
Although Kenya's population of approximately 57 million pales in comparison to Nigeria's 222 million, the East African region, with nearly 500 million people, boasts a larger population than its Western counterpart.
Although neighboring Tanzania holds a larger population than Kenya, the latter stands out for its superior wealth and infrastructure, including robust digital connectivity. Internet access in Kenya is ranked among the most reliable on the continent.
Kenya also holds a positive narrative in the realm of green energy, with over 80% of its energy coming from renewable sources. The climate's suitability for expanding solar power aligns well with the global emphasis on sustainable energy. However, the drawback of expensive energy, attributed in part to taxes and inadequate regulation, hampers progress.
Challenges, however, persist. Kenya has struggled to attract foreign direct investment compared to its African peers. Concerns about corruption, regulatory barriers, and political instability linger and cannot be dismissed lightly.
Nevertheless, recent times have witnessed stable governance in Kenya, underscored by the relatively smooth conduct of the 2022 elections. Improved measures have curtailed major terror attacks, often originating from Somali groups. As Kenya's prosperity deepens, these issues are likely to further diminish.
It's plausible that sub-Saharan Africa may not witness the emergence of a single dominant corporate hub. The United Arab Emirates is poised to evolve into Africa's financial center, Lagos to maintain its status as a startup hotspot, and South Africa to remain the dominant business hub in the South. Furthermore, London, Beijing, and India are expected to play pivotal roles in Africa's economic landscape.
Nonetheless, the vast distances across Africa and its burgeoning population strongly favor Kenya's growth trajectory. The notion of establishing manufacturing plants or service centers near Nairobi or Mombasa holds appeal, even if confined to serving East Africa. Kenya's neighboring nations to the west and south, Tanzania and Uganda, share an English-language background, and Tanzania's population may rise significantly.
The ascent of Africa is a reality, and East Africa is no exception. Betting on this trajectory, Kenya emerges as the most logical and predictable avenue. South Africa's geographical remoteness from both the global stage and much of Africa's population adds further weight to Kenya's proposition.
